Jupiter Intelligence collaborates with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on its research into how physical climate risk is projected to affect Gross Domestic Product on a country-by-country scale.

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By Max Evans, Principal Solutions Consultant, Jupiter

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The IMF has released A Multi-Country Study of Forward-Looking Economic Losses from Floods and Tropical Cyclones, a working paper that reveals escalating economic damages from floods and tropical cyclones through 2100, particularly under severe global warming scenarios. 

Covering 183 countries, the July 2024 report also projects the uneven distribution of climate-change-related damages across the world.

Jupiter hazard data contributed materially to the IMF study, which is designed to bridge the gap between economic and climate literature by adopting a simple framework for analyzing losses from these hazards. 

The research team sampled a globally distributed portfolio of GDP-weighted points to conduct analysis specifically on how flood and tropical cyclone risk will change over the century. To estimate risk, the team sourced Jupiter data as hazard input, GDP-weighted point sampling as potential exposure, and methods from two academic papers, Huizinga and others (2017)¹ for floods and Eberenz and others (2021)² for tropical cyclones, for vulnerability analysis.  

The major three findings from the IMF paper conclude that:

• Most countries considered will experience an increase in damages caused by floods and tropical cyclones by mid-century. These countries represent a significant share of the global economy.
• Damages under more severe climate scenarios are higher for most countries considered—pointing to a positive correlation between global flood and tropical cyclones risks and global warming. 
• Flood and tropical cyclone risks are unevenly distributed across the world

Jupiter’s advanced flood hazard metrics, provided through our flagship product, ClimateScore™ Global, currently combine fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flood modeling to offer forward-focused physical risk projections across the planet’s land surface. Jupiter flood risk metrics are presented at 90-meter and finer resolutions, available at five-year increments through the year 2100, and based on three IPCC AR6 emissions scenarios: low (SSP 2.6/1.8C), intermediate (SSP 4.5/2.7C), and high (SSP 8.5/4.4C).

Jupiter's ClimateScore Global acute wind metrics are derived from a proprietary tropical cyclone model, which uses a regression-based approach to relate tropical cyclone intensity to aspects of the surrounding environment. The model uses synthetic tropical cyclone tracks and intensities to estimate the tropical cyclone wind risk beyond what is possible using limited historical data to provide tropical cyclone wind speeds at storm scale or about 1km resolution.

The IMF team took a different approach than the one that many clients take with Jupiter data, using hypothetical location point sampling, rather than real assets, in its risk analysis. 

Download the full IMF report here.

If you would like to speak with a Jupiter climate expert, contact us here.

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 ¹Huizinga, J., de Moel, H., and Szewczyk, W. (2017): Global Flood Depth-Damage Functions: Methodology and the Database with Guidelines. Joint Research Centre (European Commission), Sevilla, Spain. 

 ²Eberenz, S., Lüthi, S., and Bresch, D.N. (2021): Regional Tropical Cyclone Impact Functions for Globally Consistent Risk Assessments. Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences 21(1), 393–415. 

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